01 · SETUP
Free API keys — one-time setup.
Enter your keys once. 28 series load automatically.
Connect FRED, BLS, and Census ACS with free API keys stored locally in Data Hub — never sent to our servers. Click "Fetch All" and every series loads into memory in under a minute.
- FRED: GDP, PCE, CPI, yield curve, credit spreads, M2, housing starts
- BLS: payrolls, unemployment, JOLTS, CPI components, PPI, productivity
- Census ACS: state & metro income, poverty, education, demographics
- Re-fetch any time — most series update monthly, inline preview & download
Data Hub · API Setup
Regime Verdicts
02 · VERDICTS
Rule-based regime verdicts.
Plain-language readings anchored to US macro thresholds.
Every section produces a plain-language verdict — Expansion / Late-cycle / Recession, Tight / Balanced / Slack — anchored to standard US macro thresholds across growth, labor, yield curve, and credit.
- Macro regime: Expansion / Goldilocks / Late-cycle / Overheating / Stagflation / Recession
- Growth: Strong / Moderate / Weak / Contracting
- Labor: Tight / Balanced / Slack (unemployment + JOLTS)
- Yield curve: Normal / Flattening / Inverted · Credit: Compressed / Normal / Wide / Distress
03 · COCKPIT
Macro regime cockpit.
Where is the US in the macro cycle — right now?
The 4-pillar classifier shows where the US sits in the macro cycle, with historical analogs back to 1970 and forward risk signals. Growth, Inflation, Labor, and Financial Conditions in one view.
- 4 pillars: Growth, Inflation, Labor, Financial Conditions
- Historical analogs — past periods most similar to today
- Risk signals — indicators flashing caution or warning
- Single-page cockpit view of the full cycle
Macro Regime Cockpit
Late-cycle expansion.
Growth moderating, labor tight, financial conditions normalizing.
Moderate
2.1% GDP
Elevated
CPI 3.2%
Tight
U-3 3.8%
Normal
Spread 85bp
Forecasting Lab · GDP Growth
OLS + scenarios
04 · FORECASTING
Forward-looking projections.
OLS trend, scenarios, and HP-cycle on any series.
Project any of the 28 loaded FRED / BLS series with OLS trend and prediction-interval fan. Layer bull / base / bear scenarios and HP-filter cycle decomposition. Cross-series correlation matrix with best-lag KPI.
- OLS projection with prediction intervals
- Bull / base / bear CAGR scenario fan
- HP-filter cycle decomposition
- Cross-series correlation matrix + best-lag KPI
05 · REGIONAL
State and metro breakdowns.
US economy at the state and metro level.
State-level and metro-area economic and demographic breakdowns powered by Census ACS and BLS regional data. GDP, employment, housing, and demographics — all mapped.
- State GDP, employment, and per-capita income
- Top 50 metro areas by employment and job growth
- State demographics: age, education, migration flows
- Choropleth map view for any state-level indicator
Regional Analysis · Top States
06 · DATA
Every dataset, already loaded.
Inspect, preview, and download any series.
US Macro Lab ships with pre-built bundles from FRED, BLS, and Census ACS. Data Hub is the inventory — search by series, filter by source, preview rows, download individually or as a pack.
GDP, CPI, yield curve, credit spreads, M2 — long format.
Payrolls, unemployment, JOLTS, PPI — monthly frequency.
State & metro income, poverty, demographics.
All 28 loaded series in one download for offline use.
07 · HELP
Never stuck.
Guides on every section, a Help Center one click away.
Each section has a Guide button explaining what it shows, when to use it, and how to read the verdict. The Help Center catalogs every page with a glossary of US macro concepts.
In-section guides
Every section has a Guide button — methodology, thresholds, interpretation.
Page catalog
Help Center lists all 19 pages with what each produces and when to use it.
Concept glossary
Sahm rule, yield curve inversion, JOLTS quit rate — defined in plain language.
ALSO IN PUBLIC DATA LAB
Explore more public datasets.
Each lab connects to a different set of official international databases — same interface, different lens.
Explore US macro data.
28 analysis pages. FRED · BLS · Census ACS — all in one workbench.