US Macro Lab
A pre-loaded US economy workbench powered by FRED, BLS, and Census ACS data. Enter free API keys once, fetch ~28 CSV files, and read rule-based verdicts across economic intelligence, regional analysis, and market risk signals.
Overview
Auto-loaded snapshots
Enter your free FRED / BLS / Census API keys once — data loads automatically on every visit.
Rule-based verdicts
Every section produces a plain-language verdict — Expansion / Late-cycle / Contraction, Tight / Balanced / Slack, and more.
FRED · BLS · Census ACS
Federal Reserve FRED macro series, Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and Census ACS regional demographics — all free, all harmonized.
What's included
What you can do
When you open the app you land on the Overview — a rundown of the data sources (FRED, BLS, Census ACS) plus cards for every page.
How it works
US Macro fetches live data using your own free API keys. Keys are stored in your browser — they never leave your device.
The same controls on every page
Data Hub — keys, fetch & download
The Data Hub is where you enter your API keys and click Fetch All. It also lists every loaded CSV with its type, row count, size, and source (FRED, BLS, Census ACS) — preview rows in a side modal, or download files individually or in bulk. It looks roughly like this:
Reading a page
Open any page and you get a one-screen read — a verdict band on top, a few dimension cards, then tabs and a findings list. The layout reads like this:
Charts & tables
Keep scrolling and you reach the KPI tiles, then the charts and tables for that view — most with a 5y / 10y / 20y window toggle. Each page shows different ones; here's one example:
The in-app Guide
The ⓘ Guide button on each page opens a panel explaining that screen's tiles, thresholds, and verdicts. Each page has its own — for example:
Page categories
US Macro organizes its 28 pages into 7 sidebar categories.
Overview
Landing page with data-source rundown and page catalog.
1 page
Data Hub
API key management, fetch controls, CSV preview & download.
1 page
Cockpit
Macro Regime Cockpit — 4-pillar classifier with historical analogs.
1 page
Economic Intelligence
GDP, inflation, labor, housing, credit, and regional views.
10 pages
Regional Analysis
State-level and metro-area economic and demographic breakdowns.
8 pages
Market & Risk Signals
Yield curve, credit spreads, recession probability, and leading indicators.
4 pages
Research
Forecasting Lab — trend / scenario / cycle / correlation projections.
3 pages
All pages
All 17 pages organized into 7 categories. Each page is self-contained — open it, browse the verdicts, and use the in-page Guide button for detail.
Overview
· 1 pageLanding screen — data sources, how to fetch, and page catalog.
Overview
landingcatalogData-source rundown + page catalog. Read this first.
What it shows
- •Lists FRED, BLS, and Census ACS sources with descriptions
- •Shows how many datasets are currently in memory
- •Cards for every page — click to navigate
Data Hub
· 1 pageAPI key management, fetch controls, and CSV inventory.
Data Hub
api keysfetchcsvEnter API keys, fetch all datasets, preview and download any CSV.
What it shows
- •API key inputs for FRED, BLS, and Census ACS (stored locally in browser)
- •Fetch All button — pulls ~28 CSV files in under a minute
- •Search by file name, key, or description
- •Preview first 100 rows of any CSV in a modal
- •Download individual files or bulk-export the filtered set
Cockpit
· 1 pageHigh-level macro regime classification with historical context.
Macro Regime Cockpit
regimecycle4-pillar regime classifier — where is the US in the macro cycle?
What it shows
- •Four pillars: Growth, Inflation, Labor, Financial Conditions
- •Regime verdict: Expansion / Goldilocks / Late-cycle / Overheating / Stagflation / Recession
- •Historical analogs — past periods that most resemble the current configuration
- •Risk signals — indicators flashing caution or warning
Economic Intelligence
· 5 pagesDeep dives into the main macro aggregates.
GDP & Growth
4 tabsgrowthReal GDP trajectory, demand decomposition, and growth regime.
What it shows
- •Real GDP growth — level, YoY, and 5y rolling average
- •Demand decomposition — consumption / investment / government / net exports shares
- •Regime: Expansion / Moderate / Slowdown / Contraction
Inflation & Prices
4 tabsinflationCPI, PCE, PPI, and inflation expectations.
What it shows
- •Headline vs core CPI and PCE
- •Component breakdown — shelter, energy, food, services
- •Breakeven inflation (5y / 10y) from TIPS spreads
Labor Market
4 tabslaborEmployment, unemployment, wages, and labor force participation.
What it shows
- •Payrolls — monthly change, 3m and 12m averages
- •Unemployment rate with U-3, U-6, and participation rate
- •JOLTS — job openings, hires, quits, layoffs
- •Average hourly earnings — nominal and real
Housing Market
4 tabshousingConstruction activity, home prices, affordability, and permits.
What it shows
- •Housing starts and permits — total, single-family, multi-family
- •Case-Shiller home price index
- •Affordability index — income vs mortgage payment ratio
Credit & Money
4 tabscreditBank credit, consumer debt, M2, and financial conditions.
What it shows
- •Bank credit — total loans and leases, YoY growth
- •Consumer credit — revolving vs non-revolving
- •M2 money supply — level and YoY growth
- •Financial conditions index
Regional Analysis
· 4 pagesState-level and metro-area economic and demographic breakdowns.
State Economy
statemapState-level GDP, employment, and income trends.
What it shows
- •GDP by state — level, growth, and share of national GDP
- •State unemployment rates vs national benchmark
- •Per-capita income by state + 5y trend
- •Choropleth map view for any indicator
Metro Areas
metroMSAMSA-level labor market and economic data.
What it shows
- •Top 50 metro areas by employment and GDP
- •Metro unemployment vs national average
- •Job growth rankings — fastest / slowest growing metros
Demographics
Census ACSdemographicsPopulation, age structure, education, and migration.
What it shows
- •Population by state — level and growth rate
- •Age distribution — share 65+, share under 18
- •Educational attainment — bachelor's+ share by state
- •Migration flows — net domestic migration by state
Regional Housing
housingstateState and metro-level housing costs and affordability.
What it shows
- •Median home prices by state — level and YoY change
- •Rent burden — % of income spent on rent
- •Homeownership rate by state
- •Vacancy rates — rental and ownership
Market & Risk Signals
· 4 pagesForward-looking indicators of recession risk and financial stress.
Yield Curve
recessiontreasury10y–2y and 10y–3m spreads as recession predictors.
What it shows
- •Spread levels — current vs historical thresholds
- •Inversion depth and duration
- •Full yield curve at snapshots
- •Verdict: Normal / Flattening / Inverted
Recession Probability
recessionprobabilityModel-based recession probability from leading indicators.
What it shows
- •Smoothed recession probability from NBER-aligned model
- •Leading Economic Index (LEI) components
- •Probit model probability from yield curve + unemployment
- •Signal: Low / Elevated / High risk
Credit Spreads
creditriskIG and high-yield spreads as financial stress gauges.
What it shows
- •IG OAS — Baa spread over Treasuries
- •HY OAS — high yield spread, recession threshold at ~600 bps
- •Spread regime: Compressed / Normal / Wide / Distress
Leading Indicators
leadingPMIComposite leading indicators and diffusion indexes.
What it shows
- •Conference Board LEI — 10 components, 6m change
- •ISM Manufacturing PMI — expansion/contraction boundary at 50
- •Chicago Fed NFCI — national financial conditions index
Research
· 1 pageForward-looking projections, decomposition, and correlation analysis.
Forecasting Lab
3 tabsprojectionOLS / scenario / cycle / correlation analysis on any US macro series.
What it shows
- •Trend — OLS projection with prediction-interval fan + slope classification
- •Scenario — bull / base / bear CAGR fan
- •Cycle — HP-filter decomposition with cyclicality verdict
- •Correlation — cross-series correlation matrix + best-lag KPI